A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
